Resilience under provider failure: fallback chains and circuit breaking

Run 20261006-133656 · version local · 2026-10-06 13:36 UTC · 0 upstream calls (0 replayed) · $0.0000

Question. How much availability does a fallback chain buy during a provider outage, and what does the circuit breaker add on top?

Availability, single provider

62.5%

primary down for 20 s of 60 s

Availability, fallback + breaker

99.2%

p95 1184ms

Dead-primary calls avoided by the breaker

200 → 5

during the outage window

Findings

A single provider serves 62.5% of traffic through a 20-second outage; a fallback chain serves 99.2%.
Fallback alone still sends every outage request to the dead primary first (200 calls), so each one pays the 2 s timeout: p95 is 3128ms. The circuit breaker stops trying after 3 failures and probes once per cooldown, cutting dead calls to 5 and p95 to 1184ms.
The breaker never refuses a request; it only reorders where the request is sent. Availability is the fallback chain's job, latency during an outage is the breaker's.

Whole runDuring the outage

Lower is better. Virtual-clock latency: a failed primary call costs its full 2 s timeout before the fallback fires.

p50p95p99

Configuration	Success rate	Success during outage	p50	p95	p99	Calls to the dead primary during outage	Served by backup
Single provider	62.5%	0.0%	738ms	2000ms	2000ms	200	0
Fallback chain	99.2%	97.5%	738ms	3128ms	3196ms	200	220
Fallback + circuit breaker	99.2%	97.5%	710ms	1184ms	3095ms	5	222

600 requests at one per 100ms (virtual clock); primary has 5% random 503s and is fully down from 20s to 40s; backup has 2% random 503s and is slower.
The router and circuit breaker are the production implementation; only the providers are simulated (seeded, reproducible).
Breaker: opens after 3 consecutive failures, half-opens after 5 s with a single probe.

Configuration

{
  "policy": "balanced",
  "policy_version": "1.0.0",
  "quick": true,
  "seed": 42,
  "workers": 6
}